**Polymarket traders price a 50% implied probability on UK annual real GDP growth of 0-1% for 2026, reflecting consensus forecasts clustered around 0.8% from the IMF's April World Economic Outlook and OECD estimates of 0.7%, downgraded due to Middle East conflict-driven energy supply disruptions and elevated inflation pressures.** Yesterday's ONS release showed Q1 2026 GDP expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter—strongest since Q1 2025 and services-led—yet analysts warn this predates full war impacts on supply chains and business confidence. The 36.9% odds for 1-2% nod to OBR's March 1.1% projection and residual momentum, while 32% on contraction (<0%) captures recession risks from geopolitical headwinds; higher bins lag amid subdued labor market signals. Bank of England June MPC and Q2 GDP data will refine expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0-1% 49%
4-5% 33.0%
<0 30%
2-3% 6.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Feb 12, 2027
<0
30%
0-1%
49%
1-2%
27%
2-3%
7%
3-4%
6%
4-5%
33%
5%+
22%
0-1% 49%
4-5% 33.0%
<0 30%
2-3% 6.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$345 KL.
30%
0-1%
$381 KL.
49%
1-2%
$210 KL.
27%
2-3%
$247 KL.
7%
3-4%
$201 KL.
6%
4-5%
$423 KL.
33%
5%+
$252 KL.
22%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Polymarket traders price a 50% implied probability on UK annual real GDP growth of 0-1% for 2026, reflecting consensus forecasts clustered around 0.8% from the IMF's April World Economic Outlook and OECD estimates of 0.7%, downgraded due to Middle East conflict-driven energy supply disruptions and elevated inflation pressures.** Yesterday's ONS release showed Q1 2026 GDP expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter—strongest since Q1 2025 and services-led—yet analysts warn this predates full war impacts on supply chains and business confidence. The 36.9% odds for 1-2% nod to OBR's March 1.1% projection and residual momentum, while 32% on contraction (<0%) captures recession risks from geopolitical headwinds; higher bins lag amid subdued labor market signals. Bank of England June MPC and Q2 GDP data will refine expectations.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,058Ngày kết thúc
Feb 12, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Polymarket traders price a 50% implied probability on UK annual real GDP growth of 0-1% for 2026, reflecting consensus forecasts clustered around 0.8% from the IMF's April World Economic Outlook and OECD estimates of 0.7%, downgraded due to Middle East conflict-driven energy supply disruptions and elevated inflation pressures.** Yesterday's ONS release showed Q1 2026 GDP expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter—strongest since Q1 2025 and services-led—yet analysts warn this predates full war impacts on supply chains and business confidence. The 36.9% odds for 1-2% nod to OBR's March 1.1% projection and residual momentum, while 32% on contraction (<0%) captures recession risks from geopolitical headwinds; higher bins lag amid subdued labor market signals. Bank of England June MPC and Q2 GDP data will refine expectations.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$2,058Ngày kết thúc
Feb 12, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Polymarket traders price a 50% implied probability on UK annual real GDP growth of 0-1% for 2026, reflecting consensus forecasts clustered around 0.8% from the IMF's April World Economic Outlook and OECD estimates of 0.7%, downgraded due to Middle East conflict-driven energy supply disruptions and elevated inflation pressures.** Yesterday's ONS release showed Q1 2026 GDP expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter—strongest since Q1 2025 and services-led—yet analysts warn this predates full war impacts on supply chains and business confidence. The 36.9% odds for 1-2% nod to OBR's March 1.1% projection and residual momentum, while 32% on contraction (<0%) captures recession risks from geopolitical headwinds; higher bins lag amid subdued labor market signals. Bank of England June MPC and Q2 GDP data will refine expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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