Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability against negative US GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expansion at a solid 2.0% annualized rate—up sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% and exceeding slowdown fears. This resilience stems from steady consumer spending and a stable labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3% amid nonfarm payroll gains. Forecasters from CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Philadelphia Fed align on full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, reflecting disinflation progress and Fed policy accommodation. Tail risks include geopolitical oil shocks or abrupt monetary tightening, but Q2 GDPNow at 3.7% and June FOMC loom as key catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$26,071 KL.
$26,071 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
$26,071 KL.
$26,071 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability against negative US GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expansion at a solid 2.0% annualized rate—up sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% and exceeding slowdown fears. This resilience stems from steady consumer spending and a stable labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3% amid nonfarm payroll gains. Forecasters from CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Philadelphia Fed align on full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, reflecting disinflation progress and Fed policy accommodation. Tail risks include geopolitical oil shocks or abrupt monetary tightening, but Q2 GDPNow at 3.7% and June FOMC loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,071Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability against negative US GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expansion at a solid 2.0% annualized rate—up sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% and exceeding slowdown fears. This resilience stems from steady consumer spending and a stable labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3% amid nonfarm payroll gains. Forecasters from CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Philadelphia Fed align on full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, reflecting disinflation progress and Fed policy accommodation. Tail risks include geopolitical oil shocks or abrupt monetary tightening, but Q2 GDPNow at 3.7% and June FOMC loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$26,071Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability against negative US GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 real GDP expansion at a solid 2.0% annualized rate—up sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% and exceeding slowdown fears. This resilience stems from steady consumer spending and a stable labor market, with unemployment holding near 4.3% amid nonfarm payroll gains. Forecasters from CBO, Goldman Sachs, and Philadelphia Fed align on full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, reflecting disinflation progress and Fed policy accommodation. Tail risks include geopolitical oil shocks or abrupt monetary tightening, but Q2 GDPNow at 3.7% and June FOMC loom as key catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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