Strong nowcasts for U.S. real GDP growth in Q3 2026, led by the Atlanta Fed's 5.1% estimate as of September 17, underpin the 53.5% market-implied probability for ≥3.0% annualized growth. Robust personal consumption expenditures, tracking near 3.0-3.7% in recent data, combined with AI-driven business investment in equipment and intellectual property, have lifted projections despite softer net exports. A balanced labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains supports consumer resilience, while FOMC median forecasts for full-year 2026 growth at 2.3% reflect tempered optimism. Trader consensus prices in these momentum factors ahead of the BEA advance estimate, though downside risks from moderating fiscal support and sticky core PCE inflation around 3% could influence final readings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật≥3.0% 54%
2.0–2.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 16%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$28,323 KL.
$28,323 KL.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
20%
2.5–3.0%
16%
≥3.0%
54%
≥3.0% 54%
2.0–2.5% 20%
2.5–3.0% 16%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$28,323 KL.
$28,323 KL.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$911 KL.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 KL.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 KL.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 KL.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,950 KL.
20%
2.5–3.0%
$3,461 KL.
16%
≥3.0%
$20,063 KL.
54%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong nowcasts for U.S. real GDP growth in Q3 2026, led by the Atlanta Fed's 5.1% estimate as of September 17, underpin the 53.5% market-implied probability for ≥3.0% annualized growth. Robust personal consumption expenditures, tracking near 3.0-3.7% in recent data, combined with AI-driven business investment in equipment and intellectual property, have lifted projections despite softer net exports. A balanced labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains supports consumer resilience, while FOMC median forecasts for full-year 2026 growth at 2.3% reflect tempered optimism. Trader consensus prices in these momentum factors ahead of the BEA advance estimate, though downside risks from moderating fiscal support and sticky core PCE inflation around 3% could influence final readings.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$28,323Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong nowcasts for U.S. real GDP growth in Q3 2026, led by the Atlanta Fed's 5.1% estimate as of September 17, underpin the 53.5% market-implied probability for ≥3.0% annualized growth. Robust personal consumption expenditures, tracking near 3.0-3.7% in recent data, combined with AI-driven business investment in equipment and intellectual property, have lifted projections despite softer net exports. A balanced labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains supports consumer resilience, while FOMC median forecasts for full-year 2026 growth at 2.3% reflect tempered optimism. Trader consensus prices in these momentum factors ahead of the BEA advance estimate, though downside risks from moderating fiscal support and sticky core PCE inflation around 3% could influence final readings.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Khối lượng
$28,323Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Strong nowcasts for U.S. real GDP growth in Q3 2026, led by the Atlanta Fed's 5.1% estimate as of September 17, underpin the 53.5% market-implied probability for ≥3.0% annualized growth. Robust personal consumption expenditures, tracking near 3.0-3.7% in recent data, combined with AI-driven business investment in equipment and intellectual property, have lifted projections despite softer net exports. A balanced labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and steady payroll gains supports consumer resilience, while FOMC median forecasts for full-year 2026 growth at 2.3% reflect tempered optimism. Trader consensus prices in these momentum factors ahead of the BEA advance estimate, though downside risks from moderating fiscal support and sticky core PCE inflation around 3% could influence final readings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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