Statistics Canada’s September 29 advance estimate showed Canadian real GDP rising 0.2% month-over-month in August, following a flat July reading and a revised 0.4% gain in June. Gains in mining and quarrying plus retail trade outweighed declines in oil and gas extraction, aligning with resilient consumer spending and preliminary sales data. This flash figure, subject to revision, underpins the 48% market-implied probability for the 0.2–0.3% band ahead of the official October 30 release. Broader context includes Q2’s 0.8% quarterly expansion, renewed U.S. tariff pressures that could weigh on later-quarter activity, and CPI near 3% that has kept the Bank of Canada on hold at 2.25%.