US economic resilience, with real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1 and consensus forecasts of 2.0–2.3% growth for the full year, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Stable labor conditions, including unemployment near 4.1–4.5% and solid job gains aligned with workforce expansion, combine with productivity-driven investment and supportive fiscal measures to sustain above-trend activity. The Federal Reserve’s maintenance of the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid 3.5% year-over-year inflation reflects a cautious stance prioritizing price stability without aggressive tightening that could tip the economy into contraction. Upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and employment data remain key catalysts that could shift trader sentiment if growth or inflation trajectories diverge materially from current baselines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS recession by end of 2027?
US recession by end of 2027?
35% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2027
35% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productUS economic resilience, with real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1 and consensus forecasts of 2.0–2.3% growth for the full year, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Stable labor conditions, including unemployment near 4.1–4.5% and solid job gains aligned with workforce expansion, combine with productivity-driven investment and supportive fiscal measures to sustain above-trend activity. The Federal Reserve’s maintenance of the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid 3.5% year-over-year inflation reflects a cautious stance prioritizing price stability without aggressive tightening that could tip the economy into contraction. Upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and employment data remain key catalysts that could shift trader sentiment if growth or inflation trajectories diverge materially from current baselines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Thị trường mở: Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productUS economic resilience, with real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1 and consensus forecasts of 2.0–2.3% growth for the full year, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Stable labor conditions, including unemployment near 4.1–4.5% and solid job gains aligned with workforce expansion, combine with productivity-driven investment and supportive fiscal measures to sustain above-trend activity. The Federal Reserve’s maintenance of the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid 3.5% year-over-year inflation reflects a cautious stance prioritizing price stability without aggressive tightening that could tip the economy into contraction. Upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and employment data remain key catalysts that could shift trader sentiment if growth or inflation trajectories diverge materially from current baselines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Khối lượng
$2Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US economic resilience, with real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1 and consensus forecasts of 2.0–2.3% growth for the full year, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Stable labor conditions, including unemployment near 4.1–4.5% and solid job gains aligned with workforce expansion, combine with productivity-driven investment and supportive fiscal measures to sustain above-trend activity. The Federal Reserve’s maintenance of the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid 3.5% year-over-year inflation reflects a cautious stance prioritizing price stability without aggressive tightening that could tip the economy into contraction. Upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and employment data remain key catalysts that could shift trader sentiment if growth or inflation trajectories diverge materially from current baselines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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