Persistent near-term inflationary pressures from elevated oil and fuel prices tied to Middle East developments have lifted March-quarter CPI to 3.1 percent and prompted updated RBNZ projections of a temporary spike toward 4.2 percent, driving the 64.0 percent market-implied probability of an Official Cash Rate increase at the July meeting. With the current 2.25 percent OCR still well below the estimated 3 percent neutral level, traders view the policy stance as stimulatory and expect the central bank to begin normalizing rates as inflation expectations rise, including the two-year measure reaching 2.53 percent in the latest survey. Weak domestic demand and labor-market slack continue to support the 29.5 percent no-change case, while the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement remains the key near-term catalyst that could refine the path for subsequent meetings.