The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, combined with explicit guidance that the easing cycle has concluded, anchors trader expectations for a hold at the June 25 meeting. Weak first-quarter GDP, easing headline and core inflation readings near 4.5 percent and 4.3 percent respectively, and lingering geopolitical and trade uncertainties have reinforced the board’s preference for stability at the current restrictive level. Market-implied odds above 90 percent for no change reflect this forward guidance and the absence of fresh data that would justify another move, though persistent inflation above the 3 percent target or a sharper-than-expected rebound in activity could still prompt a reassessment before the June resolution.