Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP release, scheduled for May 19, anchors trader sentiment, with private-economy consensus forecasts centering on 1.7–1.8 percent annualized growth driven by recovering exports and resilient private consumption. Economists highlight firm semiconductor demand and the lagged effects of earlier fiscal support, while noting that Middle East tensions have exerted only limited drag so far. The near-even split between the 0.9–1.1 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent brackets reflects residual uncertainty over the precise quarterly momentum and potential revisions in the first preliminary print. Markets continue to price in a modest positive outcome overall, consistent with the Bank of Japan’s recent assessment of above-trend expansion and the absence of immediate downside surprises in leading indicators.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.3–0.5% 21.9%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 3.1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
2%
0.3–0.5%
22%
0.6–0.8%
32%
0.9–1.1%
32%
1.2%+
3%
0.3–0.5% 21.9%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 3.1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,057 KL.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$650 KL.
4%
0.0–0.2%
$994 KL.
2%
0.3–0.5%
$786 KL.
22%
0.6–0.8%
$447 KL.
32%
0.9–1.1%
$683 KL.
32%
1.2%+
$2,699 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q1 2026 GDP release, scheduled for May 19, anchors trader sentiment, with private-economy consensus forecasts centering on 1.7–1.8 percent annualized growth driven by recovering exports and resilient private consumption. Economists highlight firm semiconductor demand and the lagged effects of earlier fiscal support, while noting that Middle East tensions have exerted only limited drag so far. The near-even split between the 0.9–1.1 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent brackets reflects residual uncertainty over the precise quarterly momentum and potential revisions in the first preliminary print. Markets continue to price in a modest positive outcome overall, consistent with the Bank of Japan’s recent assessment of above-trend expansion and the absence of immediate downside surprises in leading indicators.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Thị trường mở: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,317Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q1 2026 GDP release, scheduled for May 19, anchors trader sentiment, with private-economy consensus forecasts centering on 1.7–1.8 percent annualized growth driven by recovering exports and resilient private consumption. Economists highlight firm semiconductor demand and the lagged effects of earlier fiscal support, while noting that Middle East tensions have exerted only limited drag so far. The near-even split between the 0.9–1.1 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent brackets reflects residual uncertainty over the precise quarterly momentum and potential revisions in the first preliminary print. Markets continue to price in a modest positive outcome overall, consistent with the Bank of Japan’s recent assessment of above-trend expansion and the absence of immediate downside surprises in leading indicators.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Khối lượng
$7,317Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP release, scheduled for May 19, anchors trader sentiment, with private-economy consensus forecasts centering on 1.7–1.8 percent annualized growth driven by recovering exports and resilient private consumption. Economists highlight firm semiconductor demand and the lagged effects of earlier fiscal support, while noting that Middle East tensions have exerted only limited drag so far. The near-even split between the 0.9–1.1 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent brackets reflects residual uncertainty over the precise quarterly momentum and potential revisions in the first preliminary print. Markets continue to price in a modest positive outcome overall, consistent with the Bank of Japan’s recent assessment of above-trend expansion and the absence of immediate downside surprises in leading indicators.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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