Recent strong semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-on-year trade surge have lifted trader-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth into the closely contested 3.5–4.4% range, where the two leading buckets together exceed 100% combined probability. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the fastest pace in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, prompting institutions such as JP Morgan and KDI to revise full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing factors include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which underscore fragile domestic consumption and support lower-band probabilities around 1.5–2.9%. Key upcoming data on May trade figures and global tech orders will likely determine whether the current split between mid-3% and mid-4% outcomes persists ahead of the July 28 advance release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 36.4%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.1%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
23%
2.0–2.4%
21%
2.5–2.9%
36%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
57%
4.0–4.4%
51%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 36.4%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.1%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
$278 KL.
19%
1.5–1.9%
$184 KL.
23%
2.0–2.4%
$351 KL.
21%
2.5–2.9%
$161 KL.
36%
3.0–3.4%
$154 KL.
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 KL.
57%
4.0–4.4%
$276 KL.
51%
4.5%+
$238 KL.
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Recent strong semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-on-year trade surge have lifted trader-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth into the closely contested 3.5–4.4% range, where the two leading buckets together exceed 100% combined probability. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the fastest pace in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, prompting institutions such as JP Morgan and KDI to revise full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing factors include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which underscore fragile domestic consumption and support lower-band probabilities around 1.5–2.9%. Key upcoming data on May trade figures and global tech orders will likely determine whether the current split between mid-3% and mid-4% outcomes persists ahead of the July 28 advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Thị trường mở: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,961Ngày kết thúc
Jul 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Recent strong semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-on-year trade surge have lifted trader-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth into the closely contested 3.5–4.4% range, where the two leading buckets together exceed 100% combined probability. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the fastest pace in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, prompting institutions such as JP Morgan and KDI to revise full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing factors include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which underscore fragile domestic consumption and support lower-band probabilities around 1.5–2.9%. Key upcoming data on May trade figures and global tech orders will likely determine whether the current split between mid-3% and mid-4% outcomes persists ahead of the July 28 advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Khối lượng
$1,961Ngày kết thúc
Jul 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-on-year trade surge have lifted trader-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth into the closely contested 3.5–4.4% range, where the two leading buckets together exceed 100% combined probability. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the fastest pace in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, prompting institutions such as JP Morgan and KDI to revise full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing factors include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which underscore fragile domestic consumption and support lower-band probabilities around 1.5–2.9%. Key upcoming data on May trade figures and global tech orders will likely determine whether the current split between mid-3% and mid-4% outcomes persists ahead of the July 28 advance release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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