Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year underpin the 64.5% implied probability for a soft landing by year-end, reflecting a labor market that has cooled without breaching the 5% threshold and inflation that has eased below 3.5%. The 34.5% odds on overheating capture residual risks from energy price volatility tied to geopolitical factors and a divided FOMC that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% in July amid some calls for a hike. Negligible probabilities for stagflation or slack align with the absence of simultaneous labor market deterioration and persistent price pressures, as recent nonfarm payroll trends and core inflation readings at 2.5% suggest contained downside risks. With the year-end horizon approaching, upcoming August CPI and employment releases plus any further Fed communications will likely drive the tightest adjustments in these market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSoft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 65%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 2.0%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$70,178 KL.
$70,178 KL.
Jan 30, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
65%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
2%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 65%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 2.0%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$70,178 KL.
$70,178 KL.
Jan 30, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$32,839 KL.
65%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$24,208 KL.
35%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,622 KL.
2%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,508 KL.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year underpin the 64.5% implied probability for a soft landing by year-end, reflecting a labor market that has cooled without breaching the 5% threshold and inflation that has eased below 3.5%. The 34.5% odds on overheating capture residual risks from energy price volatility tied to geopolitical factors and a divided FOMC that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% in July amid some calls for a hike. Negligible probabilities for stagflation or slack align with the absence of simultaneous labor market deterioration and persistent price pressures, as recent nonfarm payroll trends and core inflation readings at 2.5% suggest contained downside risks. With the year-end horizon approaching, upcoming August CPI and employment releases plus any further Fed communications will likely drive the tightest adjustments in these market-implied odds.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Thị trường mở: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$70,178Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year underpin the 64.5% implied probability for a soft landing by year-end, reflecting a labor market that has cooled without breaching the 5% threshold and inflation that has eased below 3.5%. The 34.5% odds on overheating capture residual risks from energy price volatility tied to geopolitical factors and a divided FOMC that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% in July amid some calls for a hike. Negligible probabilities for stagflation or slack align with the absence of simultaneous labor market deterioration and persistent price pressures, as recent nonfarm payroll trends and core inflation readings at 2.5% suggest contained downside risks. With the year-end horizon approaching, upcoming August CPI and employment releases plus any further Fed communications will likely drive the tightest adjustments in these market-implied odds.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Khối lượng
$70,178Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year underpin the 64.5% implied probability for a soft landing by year-end, reflecting a labor market that has cooled without breaching the 5% threshold and inflation that has eased below 3.5%. The 34.5% odds on overheating capture residual risks from energy price volatility tied to geopolitical factors and a divided FOMC that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% in July amid some calls for a hike. Negligible probabilities for stagflation or slack align with the absence of simultaneous labor market deterioration and persistent price pressures, as recent nonfarm payroll trends and core inflation readings at 2.5% suggest contained downside risks. With the year-end horizon approaching, upcoming August CPI and employment releases plus any further Fed communications will likely drive the tightest adjustments in these market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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