Recent April 2026 data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent while headline CPI accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—driven by an energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions. These figures have lifted trader-implied odds for an overheating outcome to 42 percent, as persistently low unemployment continues to support wage pressures and consumer demand even as core inflation edges higher. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s decision to hold the federal-funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, signaling caution over inflation persistence rather than immediate easing. Forecasters now anticipate modest GDP growth near 2.2 percent for 2026 alongside a gradual unemployment rise toward 4.5–4.6 percent, leaving room for a soft-landing or slack scenario if energy costs moderate and labor-market cooling accelerates before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSoft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 31%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
55%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
21%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 31%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$1,681 KL.
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$434 KL.
55%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$580 KL.
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$700 KL.
21%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent April 2026 data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent while headline CPI accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—driven by an energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions. These figures have lifted trader-implied odds for an overheating outcome to 42 percent, as persistently low unemployment continues to support wage pressures and consumer demand even as core inflation edges higher. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s decision to hold the federal-funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, signaling caution over inflation persistence rather than immediate easing. Forecasters now anticipate modest GDP growth near 2.2 percent for 2026 alongside a gradual unemployment rise toward 4.5–4.6 percent, leaving room for a soft-landing or slack scenario if energy costs moderate and labor-market cooling accelerates before year-end.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Thị trường mở: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,395Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent April 2026 data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent while headline CPI accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—driven by an energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions. These figures have lifted trader-implied odds for an overheating outcome to 42 percent, as persistently low unemployment continues to support wage pressures and consumer demand even as core inflation edges higher. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s decision to hold the federal-funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, signaling caution over inflation persistence rather than immediate easing. Forecasters now anticipate modest GDP growth near 2.2 percent for 2026 alongside a gradual unemployment rise toward 4.5–4.6 percent, leaving room for a soft-landing or slack scenario if energy costs moderate and labor-market cooling accelerates before year-end.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Khối lượng
$3,395Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 data show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent while headline CPI accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—driven by an energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions. These figures have lifted trader-implied odds for an overheating outcome to 42 percent, as persistently low unemployment continues to support wage pressures and consumer demand even as core inflation edges higher. Market pricing reflects the Fed’s decision to hold the federal-funds target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, signaling caution over inflation persistence rather than immediate easing. Forecasters now anticipate modest GDP growth near 2.2 percent for 2026 alongside a gradual unemployment rise toward 4.5–4.6 percent, leaving room for a soft-landing or slack scenario if energy costs moderate and labor-market cooling accelerates before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp