Recent June 2026 core PCE inflation printed at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and edging down from May’s 3.4% amid steady but above-target readings. This sets a tight baseline for the July figure due August 26, with trader-implied probabilities clustered evenly around 3.0–3.6% reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying price pressures will moderate further or reaccelerate. Key swing factors include monthly core price changes, revisions to prior data, and incoming labor-market and spending indicators that influence the Fed’s preferred gauge. Aggregated market odds embed this data-driven equilibrium, where even modest beats or misses relative to the 3.3% forecast could shift resolution across multiple bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật≤3.0% 50%
3.1% 50%
3.2% 50%
3.3% 50%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 26, 2026
≤3.0%
50%
3.1%
50%
3.2%
50%
3.3%
50%
3.4%
50%
3.5%
50%
3.6%+
50%
≤3.0% 50%
3.1% 50%
3.2% 50%
3.3% 50%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 26, 2026
≤3.0%
$0 KL.
50%
3.1%
$0 KL.
50%
3.2%
$0 KL.
50%
3.3%
$0 KL.
50%
3.4%
$0 KL.
50%
3.5%
$0 KL.
50%
3.6%+
$0 KL.
50%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June 2026 core PCE inflation printed at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and edging down from May’s 3.4% amid steady but above-target readings. This sets a tight baseline for the July figure due August 26, with trader-implied probabilities clustered evenly around 3.0–3.6% reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying price pressures will moderate further or reaccelerate. Key swing factors include monthly core price changes, revisions to prior data, and incoming labor-market and spending indicators that influence the Fed’s preferred gauge. Aggregated market odds embed this data-driven equilibrium, where even modest beats or misses relative to the 3.3% forecast could shift resolution across multiple bins.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Aug 26, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June 2026 core PCE inflation printed at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and edging down from May’s 3.4% amid steady but above-target readings. This sets a tight baseline for the July figure due August 26, with trader-implied probabilities clustered evenly around 3.0–3.6% reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying price pressures will moderate further or reaccelerate. Key swing factors include monthly core price changes, revisions to prior data, and incoming labor-market and spending indicators that influence the Fed’s preferred gauge. Aggregated market odds embed this data-driven equilibrium, where even modest beats or misses relative to the 3.3% forecast could shift resolution across multiple bins.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Aug 26, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 core PCE inflation printed at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and edging down from May’s 3.4% amid steady but above-target readings. This sets a tight baseline for the July figure due August 26, with trader-implied probabilities clustered evenly around 3.0–3.6% reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying price pressures will moderate further or reaccelerate. Key swing factors include monthly core price changes, revisions to prior data, and incoming labor-market and spending indicators that influence the Fed’s preferred gauge. Aggregated market odds embed this data-driven equilibrium, where even modest beats or misses relative to the 3.3% forecast could shift resolution across multiple bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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