Elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven the Bank of England's hawkish shift, pushing UK CPI inflation to 3.1% in August 2026 with forecasts now exceeding 3.75% by Q4 and 4% in early 2027. At its September 17 meeting, the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6-3 vote but signaled greater upside risks to inflation from energy pass-through and second-round effects. This backdrop has aligned market-implied odds closely with an 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the November 5 decision, as reflected in SONIA swaps pricing a roughly +22 bp move. The Autumn Budget and fresh MPC forecasts represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or moderate the current trader consensus on the path for monetary policy.