Flavio Bolsonaro's selection of a vice-presidential running mate for Brazil's October 2026 presidential election has been shaped by stalled alliance talks beyond the Liberal Party (PL) and a preference for a consolidated ticket. On August 5, 2026, Bolsonaro formally announced federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL), a former Alagoas public security secretary with congressional experience since 2023, as his running mate. This move ended weeks of speculation and directly accounts for Gaspar's commanding position in trader consensus. Earlier polling and media attention had elevated other PL figures and allies, but the official nomination shifted probabilities sharply, leaving lower odds for alternatives such as Priscila Costa, Gilson Machado, and Bia Kicis. The timeline aligns with ongoing coalition-building ahead of the first-round vote against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAlfredo Gaspar 93%
Tereza Cristina 10%
Daniella Marques 10%
Priscila Costa 8%
Alfredo Gaspar
76%
Tereza Cristina
10%
Daniella Marques
10%
Priscila Costa
8%
Simone Marquetto
5%
Marcos Pontes
5%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Gilson Machado
3%
Rogério Marinho
1%
Júlia Zanatta
1%
Clarissa Tércio
-
Damares Alves
-
Renata Abreu
-
Bia Kicis
-
Rosana Valle
-
Alfredo Gaspar 93%
Tereza Cristina 10%
Daniella Marques 10%
Priscila Costa 8%
Alfredo Gaspar
76%
Tereza Cristina
10%
Daniella Marques
10%
Priscila Costa
8%
Simone Marquetto
5%
Marcos Pontes
5%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Gilson Machado
3%
Rogério Marinho
1%
Júlia Zanatta
1%
Clarissa Tércio
-
Damares Alves
-
Renata Abreu
-
Bia Kicis
-
Rosana Valle
-
An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro's selection of a vice-presidential running mate for Brazil's October 2026 presidential election has been shaped by stalled alliance talks beyond the Liberal Party (PL) and a preference for a consolidated ticket. On August 5, 2026, Bolsonaro formally announced federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL), a former Alagoas public security secretary with congressional experience since 2023, as his running mate. This move ended weeks of speculation and directly accounts for Gaspar's commanding position in trader consensus. Earlier polling and media attention had elevated other PL figures and allies, but the official nomination shifted probabilities sharply, leaving lower odds for alternatives such as Priscila Costa, Gilson Machado, and Bia Kicis. The timeline aligns with ongoing coalition-building ahead of the first-round vote against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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