**Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding position as the frontrunner in the Paraná gubernatorial race, with recent polling averages placing him in the mid-to-high 30s to mid-40s percent in the first round—well ahead of Sandro Alex (PSD) and Requião Filho (PDT), who trail in the low-to-mid 20s.** Moro’s lead has remained stable through September, supported by his established name recognition and party backing, while Sandro Alex has shown the clearest upward movement in multiple late-September surveys (gaining several points to close within or near the margin of error in some head-to-head scenarios). This reflects the boost from endorsement by incumbent Governor Ratinho Junior (PSD), whose approval ratings remain high near 80 percent. Requião Filho has held relatively steady but shows higher rejection rates across trackers. Minor candidates register negligible support below 2 percent. With the first round set for October 4, the market’s heavy weighting toward Moro aligns with polling trends indicating he is the most likely to secure victory either outright or in a runoff, where his advantage narrows most against Sandro Alex but remains decisive against Requião Filho. Late-campaign shifts in undecided voters or turnout could still influence the final margin.