Recent polling from mid-September shows incumbent President Lula receiving 38-44% in first-round vote intention surveys, placing him in a technical tie or narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro amid a polarized electorate. Government approval remains near even at roughly 48% approve and 50% disapprove, while rejection rates for both frontrunners stay elevated. Minor candidates, including Augusto Cury near 6%, continue to fragment the right-leaning vote without clear consolidation. With the October 4 first round approaching and substantial undecided or blank/null shares, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over final turnout and late shifts that could push Lula's valid vote share above or below the 44% threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật41-44% 41%
44%+ 40%
38-41% 4%
35-38% 3.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
1%
35-38%
4%
38-41%
4%
41-44%
41%
44%+
40%
41-44% 41%
44%+ 40%
38-41% 4%
35-38% 3.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
$485 KL.
1%
35-38%
$618 KL.
4%
38-41%
$1,180 KL.
4%
41-44%
$1,551 KL.
41%
44%+
$1,920 KL.
40%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows incumbent President Lula receiving 38-44% in first-round vote intention surveys, placing him in a technical tie or narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro amid a polarized electorate. Government approval remains near even at roughly 48% approve and 50% disapprove, while rejection rates for both frontrunners stay elevated. Minor candidates, including Augusto Cury near 6%, continue to fragment the right-leaning vote without clear consolidation. With the October 4 first round approaching and substantial undecided or blank/null shares, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over final turnout and late shifts that could push Lula's valid vote share above or below the 44% threshold.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,755Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows incumbent President Lula receiving 38-44% in first-round vote intention surveys, placing him in a technical tie or narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro amid a polarized electorate. Government approval remains near even at roughly 48% approve and 50% disapprove, while rejection rates for both frontrunners stay elevated. Minor candidates, including Augusto Cury near 6%, continue to fragment the right-leaning vote without clear consolidation. With the October 4 first round approaching and substantial undecided or blank/null shares, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over final turnout and late shifts that could push Lula's valid vote share above or below the 44% threshold.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$5,755Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September shows incumbent President Lula receiving 38-44% in first-round vote intention surveys, placing him in a technical tie or narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro amid a polarized electorate. Government approval remains near even at roughly 48% approve and 50% disapprove, while rejection rates for both frontrunners stay elevated. Minor candidates, including Augusto Cury near 6%, continue to fragment the right-leaning vote without clear consolidation. With the October 4 first round approaching and substantial undecided or blank/null shares, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over final turnout and late shifts that could push Lula's valid vote share above or below the 44% threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
88%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
39%
Will Augusto Cury win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40%
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