Lula leads first-round polling averages near 40% as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, while Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trails in the high 20s to low 30s, positioning the president as the clear frontrunner to finish first on October 4. Recent Quaest data released September 2 shows Lula at 37% and Bolsonaro at 29%, with writer-psychiatrist Augusto Cury of Avante rising to 10% and all others in single digits, reflecting a fragmented field that limits any challenger’s path to a plurality. The official campaign period, including free television and radio time that began in late August, has not reversed Lula’s edge despite a narrowing gap and second-round simulations that now show a technical tie. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and imprisonment further consolidate right-wing support behind his son without broadening the coalition enough to overtake the incumbent in the opening round. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns with consistent polling trends and the proximity of the vote.