Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$20,544 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
22%
December 31
71%
$20,544 KL.
September 30
$2,121 KL.
22%
December 31
$4,674 KL.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,544Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$20,544Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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