**Brazil's Chamber of Deputies contest for second place remains tightly bunched among mid-tier parties and federations because the proportional open-list system rewards broad coalitions and state-level performance over national swings.** With the presidential race between Lula (PT/FE Brasil) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) still unresolved on election day and likely heading to a runoff, voter alignment across tickets has kept seat projections fluid. Recent pre-election models indicated only modest shifts from the prior legislature, with the broader right-center bloc holding steady near 360–380 seats while left and center options compete for incremental gains. Avante, FE Brasil, and PRD-Solidariedade sit closest in trader pricing because their regional strongholds and alliance structures allow them to capture comparable shares of the 513 seats. A clearer separation would require stronger-than-expected turnout in key states, late swings in evangelical or northeastern voting blocs, or final seat allocations that favor one federation's candidates over others.