Iliana Iotova, the incumbent president running as an independent with backing from Progressive Bulgaria, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, and other groups, holds a commanding lead in recent polls ahead of the October 25 first-round vote, positioning her as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus. Andrey Gyurov ranks second with roughly half her support in surveys from Market Links and Alpha Research, while Kostadin Kostadinov trails further behind amid a field of 27 tickets. Iotova’s advantage stems from her established institutional role following Rumen Radev’s earlier exit, cross-party endorsements, and a two-round system that favors the top candidate advancing to any November 1 runoff. Low projected turnout around 37-45 percent and undecided voters near 20 percent add some uncertainty, though no major late shifts have narrowed the gap in the final weeks.