Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Die Linke and the CDU each near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold. This fragmentation, combined with Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus list seats and the potential for overhang and leveling mandates, creates substantial uncertainty in the final Abgeordnetenhaus size beyond the 130-seat minimum. Late shifts in constituency results or second-vote shares among the leading contenders could alter the number of compensatory seats, keeping trader probabilities distributed across multiple size brackets without a dominant outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<143 24%
163+ 20%
148–152 16%
143–147 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
<143
24%
143–147
20%
148–152
16%
153–157
19%
158–162
11%
163+
20%
<143 24%
163+ 20%
148–152 16%
143–147 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$0 KL.
24%
143–147
$23 KL.
20%
148–152
$0 KL.
16%
153–157
$83 KL.
19%
158–162
$0 KL.
11%
163+
$0 KL.
20%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Die Linke and the CDU each near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold. This fragmentation, combined with Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus list seats and the potential for overhang and leveling mandates, creates substantial uncertainty in the final Abgeordnetenhaus size beyond the 130-seat minimum. Late shifts in constituency results or second-vote shares among the leading contenders could alter the number of compensatory seats, keeping trader probabilities distributed across multiple size brackets without a dominant outcome.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$106Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Die Linke and the CDU each near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold. This fragmentation, combined with Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus list seats and the potential for overhang and leveling mandates, creates substantial uncertainty in the final Abgeordnetenhaus size beyond the 130-seat minimum. Late shifts in constituency results or second-vote shares among the leading contenders could alter the number of compensatory seats, keeping trader probabilities distributed across multiple size brackets without a dominant outcome.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$106Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Die Linke and the CDU each near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold. This fragmentation, combined with Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus list seats and the potential for overhang and leveling mandates, creates substantial uncertainty in the final Abgeordnetenhaus size beyond the 130-seat minimum. Late shifts in constituency results or second-vote shares among the leading contenders could alter the number of compensatory seats, keeping trader probabilities distributed across multiple size brackets without a dominant outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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