Recent state election setbacks for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, including record-low results in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and losses in Berlin on September 20, have intensified speculation about a mid-term replacement before the 2029 federal vote. These outcomes follow AfD gains in Saxony-Anhalt and reflect broader voter dissatisfaction with the coalition’s economic reforms. Trader pricing shows “No Next Chancellor before 2028” near even odds with leading CDU figures Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder, underscoring uncertainty over whether party leaders will force a Kanzlertausch or rally behind Merz. Other names such as Boris Pistorius register lower implied probabilities, as internal CDU dynamics and upcoming state contests limit consensus on any single successor.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo Next Chancellor before 2028 48%
Hendrik Wüst 25%
Markus Söder 21%
Boris Pistorius 9%
$28,787 KL.
$28,787 KL.
No Next Chancellor before 2028
48%
Hendrik Wüst
25%
Markus Söder
21%
Boris Pistorius
9%
Alice Weidel
3%
Heidi Reichinnek
3%
Felix Banaszak
3%
Tino Chrupalla
2%
Sahra Wagenknecht
2%
Katharina Dröge
1%
Carsten Linnemann
1%
Jens Spahn
1%
Lars Klingbeil
1%
No Next Chancellor before 2028 48%
Hendrik Wüst 25%
Markus Söder 21%
Boris Pistorius 9%
$28,787 KL.
$28,787 KL.
No Next Chancellor before 2028
48%
Hendrik Wüst
25%
Markus Söder
21%
Boris Pistorius
9%
Alice Weidel
3%
Heidi Reichinnek
3%
Felix Banaszak
3%
Tino Chrupalla
2%
Sahra Wagenknecht
2%
Katharina Dröge
1%
Carsten Linnemann
1%
Jens Spahn
1%
Lars Klingbeil
1%
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent state election setbacks for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, including record-low results in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and losses in Berlin on September 20, have intensified speculation about a mid-term replacement before the 2029 federal vote. These outcomes follow AfD gains in Saxony-Anhalt and reflect broader voter dissatisfaction with the coalition’s economic reforms. Trader pricing shows “No Next Chancellor before 2028” near even odds with leading CDU figures Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder, underscoring uncertainty over whether party leaders will force a Kanzlertausch or rally behind Merz. Other names such as Boris Pistorius register lower implied probabilities, as internal CDU dynamics and upcoming state contests limit consensus on any single successor.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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