The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an unusually tight four-way race, with recent polls showing Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen clustered between roughly 16% and 22%. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Kai Wegner (recently replaced as lead candidate by Stefan Evers) confronts a late surge by Die Linke, driven by housing and cost-of-living concerns, while the AfD continues to gain but remains excluded from coalition talks by the other parties’ firewall. No two-party combination currently projects a majority of the 159 seats, making three-party alliances the probable path to government. Die Grünen and SPD appear positioned as near-certain participants in any viable majority, whether a CDU-led Kenya coalition or a Linke-led red-red-green arrangement. Coalition talks following the vote will determine final participation, with FDP and BSW unlikely to clear the threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Dec 31, 2026
Grüne
88%
SPD
85%
CDU
58%
Linke
54%
AfD
6%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
$2,914 KL.
Grüne
$83 KL.
88%
SPD
$104 KL.
85%
CDU
$271 KL.
58%
Linke
$339 KL.
54%
AfD
$1,118 KL.
6%
FDP
$146 KL.
5%
BSW
$280 KL.
4%
FW
$573 KL.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an unusually tight four-way race, with recent polls showing Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen clustered between roughly 16% and 22%. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Kai Wegner (recently replaced as lead candidate by Stefan Evers) confronts a late surge by Die Linke, driven by housing and cost-of-living concerns, while the AfD continues to gain but remains excluded from coalition talks by the other parties’ firewall. No two-party combination currently projects a majority of the 159 seats, making three-party alliances the probable path to government. Die Grünen and SPD appear positioned as near-certain participants in any viable majority, whether a CDU-led Kenya coalition or a Linke-led red-red-green arrangement. Coalition talks following the vote will determine final participation, with FDP and BSW unlikely to clear the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,914Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an unusually tight four-way race, with recent polls showing Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen clustered between roughly 16% and 22%. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Kai Wegner (recently replaced as lead candidate by Stefan Evers) confronts a late surge by Die Linke, driven by housing and cost-of-living concerns, while the AfD continues to gain but remains excluded from coalition talks by the other parties’ firewall. No two-party combination currently projects a majority of the 159 seats, making three-party alliances the probable path to government. Die Grünen and SPD appear positioned as near-certain participants in any viable majority, whether a CDU-led Kenya coalition or a Linke-led red-red-green arrangement. Coalition talks following the vote will determine final participation, with FDP and BSW unlikely to clear the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Khối lượng
$2,914Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an unusually tight four-way race, with recent polls showing Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen clustered between roughly 16% and 22%. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Kai Wegner (recently replaced as lead candidate by Stefan Evers) confronts a late surge by Die Linke, driven by housing and cost-of-living concerns, while the AfD continues to gain but remains excluded from coalition talks by the other parties’ firewall. No two-party combination currently projects a majority of the 159 seats, making three-party alliances the probable path to government. Die Grünen and SPD appear positioned as near-certain participants in any viable majority, whether a CDU-led Kenya coalition or a Linke-led red-red-green arrangement. Coalition talks following the vote will determine final participation, with FDP and BSW unlikely to clear the threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp