Friedrich Merz leads a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government that has held together despite record-low approval ratings and ongoing disputes over economic reforms and budget priorities one year after his May 2025 confirmation in the Bundestag. Recent transatlantic tensions, including U.S. tariff threats and troop adjustments, along with AfD polling gains ahead of state elections, have increased pressure on the chancellor without triggering a no-confidence vote or early dissolution. Institutional factors such as the current parliamentary majority and the absence of immediate coalition collapse signals support continuity through at least 2026, aligning with the strong trader consensus against an early departure before 2027.