**The September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election will determine the composition of the next state government, with the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition under Minister-President Sven Schulze facing significant challenges.** Recent polling from institutes including Infratest dimap, INSA, and pollytix (mid-to-late August 2026) consistently shows the AfD leading with 41–43% support—roughly double the CDU’s 22–24%—while Die Linke polls around 13%, the SPD near or just above the 5% threshold at 6–7%, and the Greens, BSW, and FDP hovering at or below it. The AfD, led by Ulrich Siegmund, is explicitly targeting an absolute majority or sole government, capitalizing on its strength in eastern states. All other parties have reaffirmed a “firewall” (Brandmauer) excluding cooperation with the AfD, which the state’s Verfassungsschutz classifies as gesichert rechtsextrem in parts. The CDU has also ruled out alliances with Die Linke, leaving the incumbent coalition’s preferred continuation of CDU–SPD–FDP as one option, though fragile given the smaller parties’ risks of missing the threshold. This dynamic makes government formation highly uncertain: an AfD plurality could lead to a minority administration or prolonged negotiations, while entry or exclusion of marginal parties will directly influence whether any bloc reaches the 42-seat majority in the 83-seat Landtag. The short window before election day and the parties’ pre-election positioning on coalitions are the dominant drivers of current trader assessments.