Recent polling from multiple institutes shows Die Linke and the CDU locked in a tight contest for the largest vote share ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties near 20-23 percent and the AfD and Greens close behind. This positioning stems from voter shifts following the CDU's leadership change to Stefan Evers, dissatisfaction with the prior coalition's performance, and fragmented support across major parties that limits any single bloc's dominance. The narrow gaps in surveys keep implied probabilities concentrated on small victory margins for either frontrunner. Late campaign developments, such as turnout differences among urban districts or last-minute coalition signaling, could widen the final spread between the top two parties.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLinke 2-5% 32%
Linke 0-2% 32%
CDU 0-2% 18%
CDU 2-5% 15%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
32%
Linke 2-5%
32%
Linke 5-10%
13%
Linke 10%+
4%
CDU 0-2%
18%
CDU 2-5%
15%
CDU 5-10%
7%
CDU 10%+
2%
AfD 0-2%
2%
AfD 2-5%
2%
AfD 5%+
2%
Another party wins
2%
Linke 2-5% 32%
Linke 0-2% 32%
CDU 0-2% 18%
CDU 2-5% 15%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
$20 KL.
32%
Linke 2-5%
$259 KL.
32%
Linke 5-10%
$23 KL.
13%
Linke 10%+
$95 KL.
4%
CDU 0-2%
$0 KL.
18%
CDU 2-5%
$0 KL.
15%
CDU 5-10%
$0 KL.
7%
CDU 10%+
$45 KL.
2%
AfD 0-2%
$0 KL.
2%
AfD 2-5%
$0 KL.
2%
AfD 5%+
$0 KL.
2%
Another party wins
$65 KL.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling from multiple institutes shows Die Linke and the CDU locked in a tight contest for the largest vote share ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties near 20-23 percent and the AfD and Greens close behind. This positioning stems from voter shifts following the CDU's leadership change to Stefan Evers, dissatisfaction with the prior coalition's performance, and fragmented support across major parties that limits any single bloc's dominance. The narrow gaps in surveys keep implied probabilities concentrated on small victory margins for either frontrunner. Late campaign developments, such as turnout differences among urban districts or last-minute coalition signaling, could widen the final spread between the top two parties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Khối lượng
$507Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling from multiple institutes shows Die Linke and the CDU locked in a tight contest for the largest vote share ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties near 20-23 percent and the AfD and Greens close behind. This positioning stems from voter shifts following the CDU's leadership change to Stefan Evers, dissatisfaction with the prior coalition's performance, and fragmented support across major parties that limits any single bloc's dominance. The narrow gaps in surveys keep implied probabilities concentrated on small victory margins for either frontrunner. Late campaign developments, such as turnout differences among urban districts or last-minute coalition signaling, could widen the final spread between the top two parties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Khối lượng
$507Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from multiple institutes shows Die Linke and the CDU locked in a tight contest for the largest vote share ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties near 20-23 percent and the AfD and Greens close behind. This positioning stems from voter shifts following the CDU's leadership change to Stefan Evers, dissatisfaction with the prior coalition's performance, and fragmented support across major parties that limits any single bloc's dominance. The narrow gaps in surveys keep implied probabilities concentrated on small victory margins for either frontrunner. Late campaign developments, such as turnout differences among urban districts or last-minute coalition signaling, could widen the final spread between the top two parties.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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