The Keelung mayoral race remains a tight contest between KMT incumbent Hsieh Kuo-liang and DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei ahead of the November 28 vote, with a minor independent also on the ballot. Recent polling from November 9–11 shows Tung leading 38.4% to 35.1% overall and widening the margin among likely voters, driven by higher turnout intent among his supporters and some cross-party endorsements for the challenger. Earlier surveys had favored Hsieh, reflecting his incumbency and governance record. A November 10 debate highlighted policy contrasts and minor gaffes. Traders price Hsieh as the clear favorite at 69% implied probability versus Tung at 31.5%, consistent with historical patterns favoring incumbents in local Taiwanese elections despite the current polling closeness and two-week timeline to results.