Traders assign a 91.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. Ongoing PLA activities, including ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic live-fire drills, remain consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience amid these tensions, while Beijing continues diplomatic signaling and coercive measures short of war. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention further support the current market positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
9% khả năng
$419,701 KL.
$419,701 KL.
Jun 30, 2027
9% khả năng
$419,701 KL.
$419,701 KL.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. Ongoing PLA activities, including ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic live-fire drills, remain consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience amid these tensions, while Beijing continues diplomatic signaling and coercive measures short of war. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention further support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$419,701Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. Ongoing PLA activities, including ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic live-fire drills, remain consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience amid these tensions, while Beijing continues diplomatic signaling and coercive measures short of war. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention further support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$419,701Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. Ongoing PLA activities, including ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic live-fire drills, remain consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience amid these tensions, while Beijing continues diplomatic signaling and coercive measures short of war. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention further support the current market positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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