Recent diplomatic engagement between the United States and China has reinforced trader expectations against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by mid-2027. During the May 13–15 summit, Xi Jinping described the Taiwan question as the central issue in bilateral relations and warned that mishandling it could produce clashes, while both sides maintained longstanding positions on arms sales and cross-strait stability. Routine People’s Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait and air defense identification zone have continued at normalized levels without escalation, accompanied by Taiwan’s passage of a special defense budget and sustained U.S. support. These developments, alongside active diplomatic channels and absence of acute crisis indicators, underpin the current market pricing that assigns roughly 13.5 percent implied probability to an invasion occurring within the resolution window.