Traders assign a 91.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for such an operation. Recent months feature continued gray-zone pressure through air and maritime patrols alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense drills in August 2026, yet without observable large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistics buildup. Chinese leadership changes, domestic economic pressures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, and recognition of substantial military and sanctions risks further anchor expectations of continued coercion short of war. Scheduled events such as Taiwan’s elections and routine PLA training sustain the low implied probability of crossing into open conflict.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
9% khả năng
$419,407 KL.
$419,407 KL.
Jun 30, 2027
9% khả năng
$419,407 KL.
$419,407 KL.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for such an operation. Recent months feature continued gray-zone pressure through air and maritime patrols alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense drills in August 2026, yet without observable large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistics buildup. Chinese leadership changes, domestic economic pressures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, and recognition of substantial military and sanctions risks further anchor expectations of continued coercion short of war. Scheduled events such as Taiwan’s elections and routine PLA training sustain the low implied probability of crossing into open conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$419,407Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for such an operation. Recent months feature continued gray-zone pressure through air and maritime patrols alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense drills in August 2026, yet without observable large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistics buildup. Chinese leadership changes, domestic economic pressures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, and recognition of substantial military and sanctions risks further anchor expectations of continued coercion short of war. Scheduled events such as Taiwan’s elections and routine PLA training sustain the low implied probability of crossing into open conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$419,407Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for such an operation. Recent months feature continued gray-zone pressure through air and maritime patrols alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense drills in August 2026, yet without observable large-scale amphibious mobilization or logistics buildup. Chinese leadership changes, domestic economic pressures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, and recognition of substantial military and sanctions risks further anchor expectations of continued coercion short of war. Scheduled events such as Taiwan’s elections and routine PLA training sustain the low implied probability of crossing into open conflict.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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