**Regulatory hurdles, capacity constraints, and political pressures have kept Apple from committing to CXMT DRAM purchases in 2026, supporting the 87% market-implied odds against it.** Apple has tested ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) LPDDR5X chips for iPhones and MacBooks aimed at China sales and held early talks amid an AI-driven global DRAM shortage that has tightened supply from Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron. However, CXMT’s fabs are operating near 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027 for domestic clients like Xiaomi and Huawei, leaving minimal uncommitted volume. U.S. export rules bar custom co-design, CXMT’s Pentagon 1260H listing triggers scrutiny, and bipartisan Senate opposition has intensified. White House approval remains pending, but these barriers make a 2026 supply agreement unlikely even if testing advances. Key near-term catalysts include any policy shift or CXMT capacity expansions, which are slated mainly for 2027–2028.