China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has conducted multiple unannounced ballistic missile drills in recent weeks, including DF-26 launches and no-notice exercises in mountainous terrain, while integrating the new DF-61 intercontinental ballistic missile into routine training shortly after its 2025 parade debut. These activities coincide with large-scale naval deployments and area-denial drills in the western Pacific around Taiwan, alongside submarine-launched missile tests and heightened cross-strait signaling ahead of the APEC summit. State media have emphasized rapid-response capabilities and national reunification themes, consistent with patterns of frequent live-fire and training launches. Traders therefore assign an 89.5% implied probability to at least one additional ballistic missile launch occurring before year-end, reflecting the ongoing tempo of verified exercises rather than any single announced event.