Xi Jinping's extensive consolidation of authority, including repeated anti-corruption purges that removed senior PLA figures such as Zhang Youxia in January 2026, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. These actions have reinforced personal loyalty within the military and party structures ahead of the 2027 National Congress, with no verified challenges to central leadership emerging in recent months. China's opaque elite politics and emphasis on national security priorities have sustained stability despite external speculation. While a sudden health event for Xi, acute economic disruption, or factional realignment could theoretically shift dynamics in the brief window remaining, the current absence of such catalysts supports the prevailing market assessment of low near-term risk.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChina coup attempt before 2027?
China coup attempt before 2027?
4% khả năng
$153,750 KL.
$153,750 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
$153,750 KL.
$153,750 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's extensive consolidation of authority, including repeated anti-corruption purges that removed senior PLA figures such as Zhang Youxia in January 2026, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. These actions have reinforced personal loyalty within the military and party structures ahead of the 2027 National Congress, with no verified challenges to central leadership emerging in recent months. China's opaque elite politics and emphasis on national security priorities have sustained stability despite external speculation. While a sudden health event for Xi, acute economic disruption, or factional realignment could theoretically shift dynamics in the brief window remaining, the current absence of such catalysts supports the prevailing market assessment of low near-term risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$153,750Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's extensive consolidation of authority, including repeated anti-corruption purges that removed senior PLA figures such as Zhang Youxia in January 2026, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. These actions have reinforced personal loyalty within the military and party structures ahead of the 2027 National Congress, with no verified challenges to central leadership emerging in recent months. China's opaque elite politics and emphasis on national security priorities have sustained stability despite external speculation. While a sudden health event for Xi, acute economic disruption, or factional realignment could theoretically shift dynamics in the brief window remaining, the current absence of such catalysts supports the prevailing market assessment of low near-term risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$153,750Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's extensive consolidation of authority, including repeated anti-corruption purges that removed senior PLA figures such as Zhang Youxia in January 2026, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. These actions have reinforced personal loyalty within the military and party structures ahead of the 2027 National Congress, with no verified challenges to central leadership emerging in recent months. China's opaque elite politics and emphasis on national security priorities have sustained stability despite external speculation. While a sudden health event for Xi, acute economic disruption, or factional realignment could theoretically shift dynamics in the brief window remaining, the current absence of such catalysts supports the prevailing market assessment of low near-term risk.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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