Trader consensus reflects a 95.5% implied probability against China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations such as amphibious force massing or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine People's Liberation Army naval and air activities. U.S. intelligence in March assessed no commitment to a 2027 operation, while recent cross-strait diplomacy—including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping and Beijing's May 14 call to curb "Taiwan independence" platforms—signals sustained pressure short of escalation. Economic interdependence and U.S. deterrence bolster confidence, though scenarios like a sudden blockade, Taiwan Strait crisis, or shifts in U.S.-China summit outcomes could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
$470,835 KL.
$470,835 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
$470,835 KL.
$470,835 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 95.5% implied probability against China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations such as amphibious force massing or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine People's Liberation Army naval and air activities. U.S. intelligence in March assessed no commitment to a 2027 operation, while recent cross-strait diplomacy—including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping and Beijing's May 14 call to curb "Taiwan independence" platforms—signals sustained pressure short of escalation. Economic interdependence and U.S. deterrence bolster confidence, though scenarios like a sudden blockade, Taiwan Strait crisis, or shifts in U.S.-China summit outcomes could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$470,835Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 95.5% implied probability against China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations such as amphibious force massing or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine People's Liberation Army naval and air activities. U.S. intelligence in March assessed no commitment to a 2027 operation, while recent cross-strait diplomacy—including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping and Beijing's May 14 call to curb "Taiwan independence" platforms—signals sustained pressure short of escalation. Economic interdependence and U.S. deterrence bolster confidence, though scenarios like a sudden blockade, Taiwan Strait crisis, or shifts in U.S.-China summit outcomes could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$470,835Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 95.5% implied probability against China invading Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations such as amphibious force massing or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait, despite routine People's Liberation Army naval and air activities. U.S. intelligence in March assessed no commitment to a 2027 operation, while recent cross-strait diplomacy—including Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping and Beijing's May 14 call to curb "Taiwan independence" platforms—signals sustained pressure short of escalation. Economic interdependence and U.S. deterrence bolster confidence, though scenarios like a sudden blockade, Taiwan Strait crisis, or shifts in U.S.-China summit outcomes could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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