EU sanctions phasing out all Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, combined with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and 2022 pipeline damage, anchor trader consensus against any restart before 2027. Europe has diversified supplies through LNG terminals and alternative contracts, while Germany shows no regulatory or political movement toward recertification or repairs despite occasional Russian offers. Recent developments include an EU court challenge by Nord Stream 2’s owner and public statements from Russian leadership highlighting intact capacity, yet these have produced no operational shifts. The 97.5% implied probability for “No” reflects these entrenched barriers and the timeline required for any reversal. Plausible but low-probability catalysts include a comprehensive peace agreement lifting sanctions or an acute European supply crisis prompting emergency policy changes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật3% khả năng
$151,561 KL.
$151,561 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$151,561 KL.
$151,561 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions phasing out all Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, combined with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and 2022 pipeline damage, anchor trader consensus against any restart before 2027. Europe has diversified supplies through LNG terminals and alternative contracts, while Germany shows no regulatory or political movement toward recertification or repairs despite occasional Russian offers. Recent developments include an EU court challenge by Nord Stream 2’s owner and public statements from Russian leadership highlighting intact capacity, yet these have produced no operational shifts. The 97.5% implied probability for “No” reflects these entrenched barriers and the timeline required for any reversal. Plausible but low-probability catalysts include a comprehensive peace agreement lifting sanctions or an acute European supply crisis prompting emergency policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$151,561Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions phasing out all Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, combined with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and 2022 pipeline damage, anchor trader consensus against any restart before 2027. Europe has diversified supplies through LNG terminals and alternative contracts, while Germany shows no regulatory or political movement toward recertification or repairs despite occasional Russian offers. Recent developments include an EU court challenge by Nord Stream 2’s owner and public statements from Russian leadership highlighting intact capacity, yet these have produced no operational shifts. The 97.5% implied probability for “No” reflects these entrenched barriers and the timeline required for any reversal. Plausible but low-probability catalysts include a comprehensive peace agreement lifting sanctions or an acute European supply crisis prompting emergency policy changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$151,561Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...EU sanctions phasing out all Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, combined with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and 2022 pipeline damage, anchor trader consensus against any restart before 2027. Europe has diversified supplies through LNG terminals and alternative contracts, while Germany shows no regulatory or political movement toward recertification or repairs despite occasional Russian offers. Recent developments include an EU court challenge by Nord Stream 2’s owner and public statements from Russian leadership highlighting intact capacity, yet these have produced no operational shifts. The 97.5% implied probability for “No” reflects these entrenched barriers and the timeline required for any reversal. Plausible but low-probability catalysts include a comprehensive peace agreement lifting sanctions or an acute European supply crisis prompting emergency policy changes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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