Recent stalled bilateral negotiations and the collapse of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire on May 9-11, 2026, amid mutual violation claims and renewed exchanges of fire have sharply reduced prospects for a Ukrainian peace referendum before 2027. President Zelenskyy has reiterated that any deal requires a prior ceasefire plus security guarantees, with elections or a referendum possible only afterward, while Russia continues to demand territorial concessions including remaining Donbas areas. February planning under external pressure for a May vote alongside presidential elections produced no announcements or framework agreement. Over 50 Ukrainian civil society groups oppose endorsing any Russia-linked deal, and a March poll indicated only conditional public backing without a scheduled vote. These barriers sustain trader expectations that no referendum will occur by the end of 2026.