The protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict continues without direct bilateral engagement between the two leaders, sustaining trader consensus around no summit before 2027. Diplomatic channels rely on intermediaries and multilateral forums, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and cease-fire terms remain unresolved. Recent military developments and stalled negotiation tracks have reinforced this pattern, consistent with historical precedents for prolonged stalemates. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden battlefield changes prompting emergency talks, coordinated pressure from major powers yielding a breakthrough venue, or formal mediation announcements tied to specific dates within the window.