Diplomatic pressure from the United States has produced measurable reductions in Chinese commercial presence at the Panama Canal without triggering any U.S. seizure of the waterway itself. Panama’s Supreme Court annulled the Hong Kong-based operator’s port concessions in early 2026, prompting the government to assume direct control and exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative. A U.S.-Panama security cooperation agreement followed, while canal traffic and revenues have risen steadily under Panamanian management through the first half of fiscal 2026. No legislative, executive, or military steps toward U.S. administration have been taken, and Panama continues its own ten-year modernization program. These verified outcomes underpin the 89.5 percent trader consensus against a U.S. takeover before 2027.