Saudi Arabia’s firm precondition that normalization with Israel requires credible progress toward Palestinian statehood on 1967 borders continues to block any near-term agreement, a stance reaffirmed in official statements through 2026 despite U.S. diplomatic pressure. The July 2026 U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation pact, which President Trump publicly tied to Abraham Accords participation, produced no breakthrough in bilateral talks or Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Riyadh has assessed heightened risks relative to benefits, factoring in domestic public opinion and reduced shared security incentives following shifts in the regional balance of power. With only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline and no active U.S.-mediated process yielding results, trader consensus at 91.5% on “No” reflects these entrenched procedural and political barriers.