Ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. naval enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to constrain commercial traffic, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship range for the week of August 10. Recent attacks on vessels, including reported strikes on tankers in early August, alongside a reinstated blockade following the breakdown of Iran-Oman talks, have kept daily transits at roughly 8 ships—well below the pre-crisis average of around 60. This limited throughput has supported elevated Brent crude prices near $84–97 per barrel amid supply concerns. Market-implied odds reflect persistent uncertainty over any near-term reopening, with low-probability outcomes for higher volumes hinging on rapid diplomatic progress that has yet to materialize in verified data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 56%
<25 39%
50-74 6%
75-99 1.5%
$13,948 KL.
$13,948 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
<25
39%
25-49
56%
50-74
6%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 56%
<25 39%
50-74 6%
75-99 1.5%
$13,948 KL.
$13,948 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$6,617 KL.
39%
25-49
$4,173 KL.
56%
50-74
$1,699 KL.
6%
75-99
$772 KL.
1%
100+
$687 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. naval enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to constrain commercial traffic, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship range for the week of August 10. Recent attacks on vessels, including reported strikes on tankers in early August, alongside a reinstated blockade following the breakdown of Iran-Oman talks, have kept daily transits at roughly 8 ships—well below the pre-crisis average of around 60. This limited throughput has supported elevated Brent crude prices near $84–97 per barrel amid supply concerns. Market-implied odds reflect persistent uncertainty over any near-term reopening, with low-probability outcomes for higher volumes hinging on rapid diplomatic progress that has yet to materialize in verified data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Thị trường mở: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,948Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. naval enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to constrain commercial traffic, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship range for the week of August 10. Recent attacks on vessels, including reported strikes on tankers in early August, alongside a reinstated blockade following the breakdown of Iran-Oman talks, have kept daily transits at roughly 8 ships—well below the pre-crisis average of around 60. This limited throughput has supported elevated Brent crude prices near $84–97 per barrel amid supply concerns. Market-implied odds reflect persistent uncertainty over any near-term reopening, with low-probability outcomes for higher volumes hinging on rapid diplomatic progress that has yet to materialize in verified data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Khối lượng
$13,948Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. naval enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to constrain commercial traffic, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship range for the week of August 10. Recent attacks on vessels, including reported strikes on tankers in early August, alongside a reinstated blockade following the breakdown of Iran-Oman talks, have kept daily transits at roughly 8 ships—well below the pre-crisis average of around 60. This limited throughput has supported elevated Brent crude prices near $84–97 per barrel amid supply concerns. Market-implied odds reflect persistent uncertainty over any near-term reopening, with low-probability outcomes for higher volumes hinging on rapid diplomatic progress that has yet to materialize in verified data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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