Persistent security constraints from the February 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic at just 3-5% of pre-crisis norms, with only 3-4 commercial transits daily amid unresolved mine threats, dual Iranian and U.S.-Omani routing regimes, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums roughly 15 times peacetime levels. Brent crude trades near $101 per barrel, reflecting sustained supply-chain frictions and reliance on expensive ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman rather than direct transits. Trader consensus at 97.5% against normalization by October 31 stems from these entrenched barriers, which have shown little improvement over recent months despite limited escorted movements. Tail risks include rapid diplomatic de-escalation or accelerated mine clearance that could reopen standard lanes, though current conditions point to prolonged disruption.