Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and consolidation around Perim Island have intensified risks to Bab el-Mandeb transits, driving the tight 20-24 (35.5%) and 25-29 (30.5%) brackets. Attacks on Saudi-linked vessels since late July cut crude loadings roughly in half, with daily averages recently tracking 22-27 ships amid selective avoidance by Western and Saudi operators. Tanker flows remain most pressured while some container capacity shows tentative recovery tied to Hormuz disruptions elsewhere. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing volatility from potential further escalation or selective rerouting versus stabilization ahead of month-end resolution, with implied probabilities pricing the narrow band between sustained suppression and modest rebound.