**Recent escalation in attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz has sharply curtailed visible transits, driving Polymarket odds toward very low averages through end-October.** As of early October 2026, the waterway remains in a severely restricted state roughly 220 days into the US-Iran conflict, with AIS-visible commercial traffic averaging 7.9–16 ships per day against a pre-crisis baseline of ~80–85. Multiple strikes reported since late September—including at least seven in the final week of the month and additional incidents into early October—have targeted tankers and other vessels, prompting Iranian warnings and elevated threat levels. Oil flows have shown partial recovery via shuttle transfers and dark (AIS-off) movements coordinated with US naval protection, yet the resurgence in attacks risks reversing that momentum and sustaining elevated war-risk insurance premiums. These dynamics, combined with ongoing geopolitical friction and limited near-term de-escalation signals, underpin trader consensus around 0–5 or 5–10 average daily transits by month-end, as normal commercial routing stays uneconomic and hazardous. Key upcoming catalysts include any further maritime incidents or shifts in naval posture that could alter risk pricing.