Persistent Houthi threats and the August 12 attack on a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which killed six crew members, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, sustaining elevated risk premiums and prompting selective rerouting by commercial operators. Weekly transits stabilized near 266 following the July Saudi blockade—down from 354 pre-disruption—with daily commodity vessel counts averaging 25–30 in early-to-mid August per Kpler and Clarksons data. This positions volumes near the 200–219 and 180–199 bands, where minor fluctuations in tanker and container flows, insurance costs, or further incidents could shift outcomes. Regional Iran-related tensions and shadow-fleet activity add uncertainty, keeping the four bins tightly contested as markets price incremental deterrence against baseline recovery.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 KL.
$12,247 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
31%
180-199
33%
200-219
38%
220+
30%
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 KL.
$12,247 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$6,149 KL.
31%
180-199
$2,022 KL.
33%
200-219
$812 KL.
38%
220+
$3,264 KL.
30%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and the August 12 attack on a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which killed six crew members, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, sustaining elevated risk premiums and prompting selective rerouting by commercial operators. Weekly transits stabilized near 266 following the July Saudi blockade—down from 354 pre-disruption—with daily commodity vessel counts averaging 25–30 in early-to-mid August per Kpler and Clarksons data. This positions volumes near the 200–219 and 180–199 bands, where minor fluctuations in tanker and container flows, insurance costs, or further incidents could shift outcomes. Regional Iran-related tensions and shadow-fleet activity add uncertainty, keeping the four bins tightly contested as markets price incremental deterrence against baseline recovery.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Thị trường mở: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$12,247Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and the August 12 attack on a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which killed six crew members, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, sustaining elevated risk premiums and prompting selective rerouting by commercial operators. Weekly transits stabilized near 266 following the July Saudi blockade—down from 354 pre-disruption—with daily commodity vessel counts averaging 25–30 in early-to-mid August per Kpler and Clarksons data. This positions volumes near the 200–219 and 180–199 bands, where minor fluctuations in tanker and container flows, insurance costs, or further incidents could shift outcomes. Regional Iran-related tensions and shadow-fleet activity add uncertainty, keeping the four bins tightly contested as markets price incremental deterrence against baseline recovery.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Khối lượng
$12,247Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi threats and the August 12 attack on a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which killed six crew members, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, sustaining elevated risk premiums and prompting selective rerouting by commercial operators. Weekly transits stabilized near 266 following the July Saudi blockade—down from 354 pre-disruption—with daily commodity vessel counts averaging 25–30 in early-to-mid August per Kpler and Clarksons data. This positions volumes near the 200–219 and 180–199 bands, where minor fluctuations in tanker and container flows, insurance costs, or further incidents could shift outcomes. Regional Iran-related tensions and shadow-fleet activity add uncertainty, keeping the four bins tightly contested as markets price incremental deterrence against baseline recovery.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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