Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and renewed threats of a maritime embargo have driven sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings swinging from 11 vessels to a weekly high of 39 amid rerouting by tankers and carriers. This geopolitical risk, compounded by elevated war-risk insurance premiums and persistent Red Sea threats, keeps most commercial traffic suppressed below pre-crisis norms while creating tight clustering around the 25–39 ship range. Traders’ near-even odds across the leading buckets reflect uncertainty over whether incremental de-escalation or further incidents will prevail by late August, with key swing factors including Saudi-Houthi tensions, Suez Canal routing decisions, and any shifts in global risk appetite priced into freight and energy markets.