Geopolitical tensions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict continue to drive elevated risk premiums and rerouting decisions for Bab el-Mandeb transits, keeping daily ship counts well below pre-2023 norms of roughly 60-70 vessels. Recent data show January 2026 volumes at about 35 cargo ships per day on average, with March figures dipping to a 7-day moving average near 33 amid renewed Houthi threats and selective carrier pauses. Flat market-implied odds across the 28-39 range reflect uncertainty over whether fragile ceasefires will hold or escalate through July, with key swing factors including any fresh attacks, insurance rate shifts, or naval de-escalation signals that could quickly alter carrier routing economics and push volumes toward the lower or mid bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?
34-36 47%
37-39 43%
40+ 42%
25-27 42%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 31, 2026
<25
41%
25-27
42%
28-30
41%
31-33
42%
34-36
47%
37-39
43%
40+
42%
34-36 47%
37-39 43%
40+ 42%
25-27 42%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 31, 2026
<25
$0 KL.
41%
25-27
$0 KL.
42%
28-30
$0 KL.
41%
31-33
$0 KL.
42%
34-36
$0 KL.
47%
37-39
$0 KL.
43%
40+
$0 KL.
42%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Geopolitical tensions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict continue to drive elevated risk premiums and rerouting decisions for Bab el-Mandeb transits, keeping daily ship counts well below pre-2023 norms of roughly 60-70 vessels. Recent data show January 2026 volumes at about 35 cargo ships per day on average, with March figures dipping to a 7-day moving average near 33 amid renewed Houthi threats and selective carrier pauses. Flat market-implied odds across the 28-39 range reflect uncertainty over whether fragile ceasefires will hold or escalate through July, with key swing factors including any fresh attacks, insurance rate shifts, or naval de-escalation signals that could quickly alter carrier routing economics and push volumes toward the lower or mid bins.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Thị trường mở: Jul 13, 2026, 10:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Jul 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 13, 2026, 10:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Geopolitical tensions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict continue to drive elevated risk premiums and rerouting decisions for Bab el-Mandeb transits, keeping daily ship counts well below pre-2023 norms of roughly 60-70 vessels. Recent data show January 2026 volumes at about 35 cargo ships per day on average, with March figures dipping to a 7-day moving average near 33 amid renewed Houthi threats and selective carrier pauses. Flat market-implied odds across the 28-39 range reflect uncertainty over whether fragile ceasefires will hold or escalate through July, with key swing factors including any fresh attacks, insurance rate shifts, or naval de-escalation signals that could quickly alter carrier routing economics and push volumes toward the lower or mid bins.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Jul 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 13, 2026, 10:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict continue to drive elevated risk premiums and rerouting decisions for Bab el-Mandeb transits, keeping daily ship counts well below pre-2023 norms of roughly 60-70 vessels. Recent data show January 2026 volumes at about 35 cargo ships per day on average, with March figures dipping to a 7-day moving average near 33 amid renewed Houthi threats and selective carrier pauses. Flat market-implied odds across the 28-39 range reflect uncertainty over whether fragile ceasefires will hold or escalate through July, with key swing factors including any fresh attacks, insurance rate shifts, or naval de-escalation signals that could quickly alter carrier routing economics and push volumes toward the lower or mid bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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