A US-brokered June 2026 trilateral framework ties any phased Israeli Defense Forces redeployment from southern Lebanon to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and dismantlement by the Lebanese Armed Forces, rather than a fixed timetable. The deal designates limited pilot zones for initial transfers once compliance is confirmed, but Israeli officials have stated they will retain the broader security zone until threats are eliminated. Hezbollah rejected the agreement and insists on unconditional withdrawal first, while sporadic clashes, airstrikes, and Israeli operations have continued into October. Direct talks are scheduled to resume October 20 amid stalled implementation and upcoming Israeli elections. These conditions-based mechanics and lack of disarmament progress explain the low implied probabilities for full ground force withdrawal by late 2026.