A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective since April 16, 2026, and extended multiple times, holds tenuously as Israel maintains IDF troops in southern Lebanon amid demands for full withdrawal. Recent Israeli airstrikes and military expansions in early May have heightened tensions, violating truce terms and eroding prospects for near-term pullout, while Lebanon rejects buffer zones and pushes for unconditional evacuation. Upcoming Washington peace talks this week could address security arrangements under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but Hezbollah's lingering presence and mutual accusations of ceasefire breaches sustain uncertainty, with no verified troop reductions in the past 30 days shaping trader skepticism on timely resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,459,100 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
10%
$1,459,100 KL.
May 31
$1,193,341 KL.
3%
June 30
$191,715 KL.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective since April 16, 2026, and extended multiple times, holds tenuously as Israel maintains IDF troops in southern Lebanon amid demands for full withdrawal. Recent Israeli airstrikes and military expansions in early May have heightened tensions, violating truce terms and eroding prospects for near-term pullout, while Lebanon rejects buffer zones and pushes for unconditional evacuation. Upcoming Washington peace talks this week could address security arrangements under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but Hezbollah's lingering presence and mutual accusations of ceasefire breaches sustain uncertainty, with no verified troop reductions in the past 30 days shaping trader skepticism on timely resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,459,100Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective since April 16, 2026, and extended multiple times, holds tenuously as Israel maintains IDF troops in southern Lebanon amid demands for full withdrawal. Recent Israeli airstrikes and military expansions in early May have heightened tensions, violating truce terms and eroding prospects for near-term pullout, while Lebanon rejects buffer zones and pushes for unconditional evacuation. Upcoming Washington peace talks this week could address security arrangements under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but Hezbollah's lingering presence and mutual accusations of ceasefire breaches sustain uncertainty, with no verified troop reductions in the past 30 days shaping trader skepticism on timely resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,459,100Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective since April 16, 2026, and extended multiple times, holds tenuously as Israel maintains IDF troops in southern Lebanon amid demands for full withdrawal. Recent Israeli airstrikes and military expansions in early May have heightened tensions, violating truce terms and eroding prospects for near-term pullout, while Lebanon rejects buffer zones and pushes for unconditional evacuation. Upcoming Washington peace talks this week could address security arrangements under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but Hezbollah's lingering presence and mutual accusations of ceasefire breaches sustain uncertainty, with no verified troop reductions in the past 30 days shaping trader skepticism on timely resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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