Diplomatic relations between Canada and the United States continue without major bilateral crises, trade breakdowns, or official disputes that would typically precede an ambassador expulsion, supporting the high trader consensus against the outcome by year-end. Strong economic integration, shared security frameworks, and routine diplomatic engagement provide structural stability, with no recent government statements or actions indicating escalation. Historical precedent shows such expulsions remain rare absent acute provocations like espionage findings or policy ruptures. Shifts could still occur through unforeseen developments in border security talks, tariff disputes, or leadership transitions that alter foreign policy priorities within the resolution window.