**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and associated attacks on vessels have driven sharp reductions in Strait of Hormuz transits, with commodity vessel crossings falling to just three on one recent day—well below the prior 10-day average of around 17 and pre-conflict norms of over 100 daily.** Intensified Gulf fighting, including strikes on shipping routes, IRGC warnings restricting non-coordinated passages, and enforcement actions have prompted many operators to avoid the waterway, favor dark (AIS-off) or limited northern/southern corridors, or reroute entirely amid elevated war-risk insurance and security concerns. Partial recoveries earlier in the year collapsed after ceasefire breakdowns and renewed kinetic exchanges, leaving flows at a fraction of normal levels with some days recording single-digit or low-teen transits. Trader focus centers on whether further escalation—such as expanded strikes, mine threats, or tightened controls—could produce a complete zero-transit day before the market resolution date, while any diplomatic progress or de-escalation signals could sustain minimal but non-zero traffic.