President Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models focused on cybersecurity risks and national security protections while emphasizing innovation and avoiding burdensome rules. Recent statements from the president, including his September 19 announcement of an “AI Force” and AI czar, reinforce opposition to measures that could slow development, with explicit rejection of industry calls for stricter guardrails and insistence that existing criminal laws suffice. Ongoing U.S.-China competition and the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting with Chinese leaders may shape any further executive actions. Trader assessments of additional restrictive orders by late 2026 reflect this preference for acceleration over new constraints, alongside the administration’s record of scaling back earlier proposals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
3%
October 31
15%
December 31
14%
$1,375 KL.
September 30
$850 KL.
3%
October 31
$344 KL.
15%
December 31
$241 KL.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models focused on cybersecurity risks and national security protections while emphasizing innovation and avoiding burdensome rules. Recent statements from the president, including his September 19 announcement of an “AI Force” and AI czar, reinforce opposition to measures that could slow development, with explicit rejection of industry calls for stricter guardrails and insistence that existing criminal laws suffice. Ongoing U.S.-China competition and the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting with Chinese leaders may shape any further executive actions. Trader assessments of additional restrictive orders by late 2026 reflect this preference for acceleration over new constraints, alongside the administration’s record of scaling back earlier proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,375Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models focused on cybersecurity risks and national security protections while emphasizing innovation and avoiding burdensome rules. Recent statements from the president, including his September 19 announcement of an “AI Force” and AI czar, reinforce opposition to measures that could slow development, with explicit rejection of industry calls for stricter guardrails and insistence that existing criminal laws suffice. Ongoing U.S.-China competition and the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting with Chinese leaders may shape any further executive actions. Trader assessments of additional restrictive orders by late 2026 reflect this preference for acceleration over new constraints, alongside the administration’s record of scaling back earlier proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that imposes, or directs a federal agency to impose, a mandatory requirement on the training, development, or deployment of artificial intelligence models by non-governmental developers or deployers, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A mandatory requirement is one AI model developers or deployers must meet as a condition of training, releasing, or operating a model, such as pre-release government review, required safety testing, compute or capability thresholds that trigger obligations, restrictions on training data, limits on autonomous operation, or prohibitions on specified uses. An order that directs an agency to establish such a requirement within a stated period qualifies.
Studies, reports, guidance, standards, or voluntary frameworks do not count. Orders that only govern the federal government's own use or procurement of AI, impose export or chip controls, regulate data-center energy or permitting, address immigration, or regulate only AI-generated content do not qualify.
The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,375Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 2:28 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...President Trump signed Executive Order 14409 on June 2, 2026, establishing a voluntary 30-day government review window for certain frontier AI models focused on cybersecurity risks and national security protections while emphasizing innovation and avoiding burdensome rules. Recent statements from the president, including his September 19 announcement of an “AI Force” and AI czar, reinforce opposition to measures that could slow development, with explicit rejection of industry calls for stricter guardrails and insistence that existing criminal laws suffice. Ongoing U.S.-China competition and the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting with Chinese leaders may shape any further executive actions. Trader assessments of additional restrictive orders by late 2026 reflect this preference for acceleration over new constraints, alongside the administration’s record of scaling back earlier proposals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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