Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a highly fragmented field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Yulia Navalnaya edging out Donald Trump at 7.5% implied probability amid buzz from the Norwegian Nobel Committee's April 30 disclosure of 287 nominees, including high-profile figures tied to ongoing global conflicts. Navalnaya's lead stems from her vocal opposition to Putin following Alexei Navalny's death, amplified by betting site mentions, while Trump's 6.5% follows nominations from leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan citing past accords; Zelenskyy's 5.8% rides his Ukraine resistance nomination alongside its people. UNRWA (4.9%) and Qatar's Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (4.0%) gain from Gaza mediation narratives, but no frontrunner dominates due to the committee's secretive voting and history of upsets—watch for summer campaign shifts ahead of the October announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtInternational Court of Justice gains attention amid global legal disputes
International Court of Justice jumps to 9%6%
The International Court of Justice saw increased focus due to ongoing international legal conflicts, slightly raising its market odds for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Pope Leo XIV visits Africa, emphasizing peace and community
Pope Leo XIV rises to 5%1%
Pope Leo XIV undertook a multi-nation pastoral visit to Africa, emphasizing unity, peace, and community harmony. His activities reinforced his image as a pastoral leader focused on peace, contributing to a modest increase in his market price.
Pope Leo XIV visits Cameroon, promotes peace amid separatist conflict
Pope Leo XIV jumps to 7%5%
Pope Leo XIV visited Cameroon and led a peace meeting in Bamenda, the epicenter of a separatist conflict. Separatists announced a temporary pause in fighting to allow safe travel for the pope, highlighting his role as a peace advocate and slightly boosting his market position.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 7%4%
The symbolic hand‑over of the Nobel medal to Trump reinforced speculation that he might be a contender, causing a further dip in his market price.
Venezuelan government announces amnesty bill for political prisoners amid US pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez announced an amnesty bill potentially releasing hundreds of political prisoners, including opposition figures linked to Nobel laureate Machado, impacting her market price.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 10%2%
Machado's strong public support in Madrid and refusal to meet Spain’s PM highlighted her prominence and bolstered her Nobel Peace Prize market position.
Trump ties his stance on Greenland to not getting Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump rises to 10%1%
Trump linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in a text to Norway’s prime minister. The story amplified controversy around Trump and nudged his market odds marginally upward from 9 % to 10 %.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war, citing dissatisfaction
Donald Trump dips to 12%1%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's peace proposal, maintaining tensions and impacting perceptions of his peace credentials relevant to the Nobel Peace Prize market.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado says she presented her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump during their meeting
Donald Trump rises to 9%1%
Machado publicly presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump at the White House. The gesture, widely covered, boosted sentiment that Trump might be a top contender, lifting his market probability from 8 % to 9 % briefly before it fell again later in the month.
Vladimir Putin agrees to a temporary pause in Russian energy attacks on Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%7%
The announced pause was seen as a diplomatic win for Ukraine, boosting expectations for Zelenskyy’s role in peace efforts and raising his market price.
Trump’s choice of Warsh to lead Fed could reshape the world’s most influential central bank
Donald Trump rises to 8%1%
Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve chair, a move that signaled a possible shift toward lower interest rates. Markets reacted with a modest rise in the probability of a Trump‑favoured Nobel win, moving from 7 % to 8 % the next sampling period.
Sheikh Joaan bin Hamad Al Thani elected president of Olympic Council of Asia
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani surges to 27%24%
Sheikh Joaan bin Hamad Al Thani was elected president of the Olympic Council of Asia, increasing Qatar's influence in international sports. This event raised the profile of Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and related entities, impacting their market positions.
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 8%6%
On February 7, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including a nuclear-capable missile, causing significant damage and casualties. This escalated the conflict and increased international focus on Ukraine's leadership, boosting Volodymyr Zelenskyy's perceived chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump inaugurates Board of Peace at Davos amid Greenland controversy
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Trump launched his Board of Peace to oversee ceasefire efforts in Gaza, asserting a peace leadership role despite diplomatic tensions over Greenland, influencing his market perception.
UNRWA announces major donor funding cuts
UNRWA drops to 5%5%
The UNRWA announced a sudden reduction in funding from major donor nations, a move that triggered a sharp drop in its market probability from 10 % to 5 % as investors feared diminished relevance for peace‑building awards.
Trilateral peace talks held in UAE with Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. participation
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 11%8%
Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. held constructive trilateral talks in the UAE to discuss parameters for ending the war in Ukraine. The talks included military and economic issues and were seen as a positive step toward peace, boosting market confidence in Zelenskyy and the peace process.
Trilateral peace talks between US, Russia, and Ukraine held in UAE with constructive outcomes
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%6%
Peace talks involving US, Russia, and Ukraine concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a deal and positively affecting Zelenskyy's market price.
Trump links his Greenland stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump dips to 11%2%
Trump texted Norway’s prime minister saying the Nobel snub justified his aggressive policy on Greenland, raising doubts about his Nobel prospects and further lowering his market price.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner, met Trump and symbolically gave him her medal, raising Trump's profile in the market despite the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel medal to Trump
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
María Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, met with Donald Trump and presented him with her Nobel medal as a gesture of mutual respect. Trump accepted the medal publicly, which influenced market sentiment around both figures, despite the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, claims Ukraine-Russia peace closer than ever
Donald Trump rises to 18%1%
Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and spoke with Putin, expressing optimism about peace negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, boosting Zelenskyy's and Trump's market prices.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel medal to Trump
Donald Trump rises to 19%2%
Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump at the White House, symbolically recognizing his role in Venezuela's political changes, briefly boosting Trump's market perception.
U.S. military captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump claims control
Donald Trump dips to 13%4%
The U.S. military operation captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, leading to political uncertainty in Venezuela. Trump claimed the U.S. would take control of Venezuela, sidelining opposition leader María Corina Machado despite her Nobel Peace Prize, which affected market perceptions of Trump and Machado.
International Court of Justice issues emergency order on humanitarian aid corridor
International Court of Justice jumps to 9%6%
The ICJ’s unexpected emergency ruling on a humanitarian aid corridor heightened its visibility and suggested a potential Nobel‑relevant diplomatic achievement, nudging the International Court of Justice outcome upward.
ICJ issues surprise advisory opinion on major arms embargo
International Court of Justice jumps to 7%5%
The ICJ issued an unexpected advisory opinion on the legality of a major arms embargo, prompting a brief surge in market interest for the International Court of Justice outcome, rising from 2 % to 7 % before receding later in the month.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence, escalating tensions
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 3%4%
Russia alleged a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, leading to threats against Zelenskyy and hardening Russia's negotiating stance, impacting peace talks and market perceptions of Zelenskyy's chances.
Trump gives a partisan prime‑time address insisting the economy is stronger than many voters feel
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Trump delivered a partisan prime‑time address blaming Democrats for the economy and announced a $1,776 bonus check for troops. The speech generated a sharp decline in his market probability, falling from 18 % to 17 % the following week as traders reassessed his political momentum.
Donald Trump delivers partisan prime‑time address blaming Democrats for the economy
Donald Trump dips to 14%4%
Trump’s televised speech emphasized economic blame on Democrats and announced a bonus for troops, prompting traders to view him as a less likely Nobel candidate, driving his price down sharply.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid US pressure
Venezuela’s acting government released dozens of political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, under US pressure. This development was seen as a positive sign for Machado’s influence but did not significantly raise her market price.
Trump ties his Greenland stance to the Nobel Peace Prize snub in a text to Norway’s prime minister
Donald Trump dips to 9%4%
Trump’s public claim that Norway’s decision not to award him the prize was linked to his Greenland policy reinforced the perception that his actions were influencing Nobel considerations, causing a further decline in his market price.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norway's PM
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
Donald Trump sent a text to Norway's prime minister claiming he was denied the Nobel Peace Prize due to his Greenland policy, escalating tensions with European allies and impacting his market odds negatively.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, claims Ukraine-Russia peace closer than ever
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Florida resort, asserting that Ukraine and Russia were closer than ever to a peace deal. This meeting followed Trump's phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and was seen as a significant step in the ongoing peace negotiations, boosting market confidence in Trump and Zelenskyy.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump at the White House
Donald Trump drops to 13%7%
Machado’s symbolic hand‑over of the Nobel medal to Trump sparked speculation that the prize could be linked to him, pushing the Donald Trump outcome down as traders reassessed his chances of winning the 2026 award.
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs meeting with Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 7%1%
María Corina Machado held a large rally in Madrid, emphasizing her opposition leadership and praising Trump’s role in Venezuela’s transition, while declining a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. This event highlighted her international profile but did not improve her market price, which remained low.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet to discuss peace proposals for Ukraine
Donald Trump rises to 21%3%
President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Florida resort to discuss peace proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. This meeting briefly raised Zelenskyy's market price but overall reinforced Trump's prominence in peace efforts, affecting both their market positions.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid U.S. pressure, including allies of Machado
Yulia Navalnaya dips to 6%1%
The Venezuelan government released many political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate Machado, signaling political shifts in Venezuela. This development affected market perceptions of Machado’s influence and the prize’s potential recipients.
Pope Leo XIV emphasizes peace and community in public appearances
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 3%47%
Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, focused on messages of peace, unity, and harmony during his public appearances and pastoral visits, reinforcing his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize and influencing market sentiment downward for other candidates.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado rallies thousands in Madrid, praises Trump’s role in Venezuela
Machado drew a large crowd in Madrid and publicly praised Trump’s role in ousting Maduro, reinforcing her Nobel Peace Prize credentials and maintaining some market interest, though her price remained low due to geopolitical uncertainties.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump rises to 25%3%
President Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and influenced Trump's market price positively amid geopolitical attention.
Donald Trump links Greenland policy stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump jumps to 25%6%
Trump sent a text to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and influenced market perceptions of Trump's Nobel prospects.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norway's prime minister
Donald Trump dips to 17%3%
President Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions with European allies and affected Trump's market perception negatively due to diplomatic fallout.
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%1%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This undercut speculation that Machado could give her prize to Trump, affecting market prices for both.
Norwegian Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%2%
The Nobel Institute stated that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others, countering Machado's intention to share the prize with Trump. This clarification limited Trump's chances of winning the prize himself, affecting market prices accordingly.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuela's political transition. This event boosted Trump's market price and caused a sharp drop in Machado's own price as the market reassessed their relative chances.
Nobel Institute reiterates prize cannot be transferred or shared after Machado’s gesture
Donald Trump jumps to 27%8%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that Nobel prizes cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, tempering expectations that Trump could inherit the award and contributing to a rapid drop in his price the following day.
Donald Trump receives Nobel Peace Prize medal from María Corina Machado at the White House
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Machado presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump during a closed‑door meeting, prompting a surge in market confidence that Trump could be a contender for the 2026 prize, pushing his price from 11% to 19% the next day.
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 17%3%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This statement was significant in the context of Machado's gesture to Trump and affected market perceptions about the legitimacy of prize transfer.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for promoting democracy in Venezuela, met with Trump at the White House and presented him with her medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in ousting Nicolás Maduro. This event boosted Trump's market price and diminished Machado's own chances as the prize was already awarded to her.
Trump ties Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in text to Norway’s leader
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
President Donald Trump sent a text to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre saying Norway’s decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize justified his aggressive policy on Greenland. The controversy raised Trump’s profile as a potential laureate, pushing his market price up and causing sharp declines for other contenders.
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