Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 at just 1.8%, reflecting high confidence in sustained deterrence amid absent invasion signals. Recent US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing views near-term military action as prohibitively costly, prioritizing economic development over escalation, with no observable PLA preparations like large-scale amphibious rehearsals or troop massing in the Taiwan Strait over the past 30 days. Routine military exercises persist, but Taiwan's defenses, bolstered by US arms sales and Japan alliances, maintain de-escalation. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden diplomatic ruptures, accidental clashes, or leadership directives, though the short timeline to resolution limits feasibility without precursors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTrung Quốc sẽ xâm lược Đài Loan vào ngày 30 tháng 6 năm 2026?
Trung Quốc sẽ xâm lược Đài Loan vào ngày 30 tháng 6 năm 2026?
Có
$7,950,475 KL.
$7,950,475 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Có
$7,950,475 KL.
$7,950,475 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 at just 1.8%, reflecting high confidence in sustained deterrence amid absent invasion signals. Recent US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing views near-term military action as prohibitively costly, prioritizing economic development over escalation, with no observable PLA preparations like large-scale amphibious rehearsals or troop massing in the Taiwan Strait over the past 30 days. Routine military exercises persist, but Taiwan's defenses, bolstered by US arms sales and Japan alliances, maintain de-escalation. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden diplomatic ruptures, accidental clashes, or leadership directives, though the short timeline to resolution limits feasibility without precursors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,950,475Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 at just 1.8%, reflecting high confidence in sustained deterrence amid absent invasion signals. Recent US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing views near-term military action as prohibitively costly, prioritizing economic development over escalation, with no observable PLA preparations like large-scale amphibious rehearsals or troop massing in the Taiwan Strait over the past 30 days. Routine military exercises persist, but Taiwan's defenses, bolstered by US arms sales and Japan alliances, maintain de-escalation. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden diplomatic ruptures, accidental clashes, or leadership directives, though the short timeline to resolution limits feasibility without precursors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$7,950,475Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 at just 1.8%, reflecting high confidence in sustained deterrence amid absent invasion signals. Recent US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing views near-term military action as prohibitively costly, prioritizing economic development over escalation, with no observable PLA preparations like large-scale amphibious rehearsals or troop massing in the Taiwan Strait over the past 30 days. Routine military exercises persist, but Taiwan's defenses, bolstered by US arms sales and Japan alliances, maintain de-escalation. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden diplomatic ruptures, accidental clashes, or leadership directives, though the short timeline to resolution limits feasibility without precursors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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