The near-certainty reflected in trader pricing stems from the complete absence of any official statements, Pentagon briefings, congressional actions, or defense budget references indicating plans for dolphins in offensive or specialized military roles. Established US Navy programs have long restricted marine mammal use to detection, recovery, and non-combat support functions under longstanding Department of Defense guidelines. No legislative proposals, executive orders, or agency announcements have emerged in recent weeks to suggest a shift in policy or capability. The short window remaining before May 31 leaves insufficient time for standard review, approval, and public confirmation processes. A sudden verified leak or reversal could theoretically alter the outcome, though no credible indicators currently point in that direction.